* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP992025 10/03/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 35 45 60 75 83 89 87 85 83 80 76 71 66 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 35 45 60 75 83 89 87 85 83 80 76 71 66 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 27 34 42 50 59 65 66 67 65 61 57 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 21 16 11 12 7 5 7 8 6 7 4 4 2 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -3 2 0 -3 0 -1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 66 55 57 56 43 20 49 124 104 134 147 138 107 72 97 101 78 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 30.0 29.6 29.1 28.7 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 158 159 161 160 160 165 162 156 151 134 131 126 121 118 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 76 76 74 73 70 68 66 64 62 57 51 51 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 16 19 25 30 31 35 34 35 36 38 36 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR 7 4 13 27 26 30 42 60 88 73 67 71 84 99 100 96 93 200 MB DIV 126 107 102 104 119 123 124 115 105 100 77 32 14 7 -20 -2 9 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 -1 -5 -9 -3 -3 -1 2 3 4 5 LAND (KM) 582 590 568 538 501 420 308 185 115 183 200 176 309 466 614 711 746 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.8 17.1 18.5 20.0 21.2 22.1 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.3 104.8 105.1 105.2 105.0 104.5 104.6 105.6 107.4 109.5 111.5 113.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 4 3 5 5 7 10 11 11 10 10 8 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 37 39 39 40 40 39 38 38 23 12 4 3 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 15. 24. 28. 34. 32. 31. 29. 28. 24. 20. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 25. 40. 55. 63. 69. 67. 65. 63. 60. 56. 51. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.7 103.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 10/03/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 5.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.2% 5.0% 27.6% 11.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 7.4% Consensus: 0.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.7% 9.2% 6.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 8.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 10.0% 30.0% 15.0% SDCON: 0.0% 5.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 5.8% 19.6% 10.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 10/03/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##