* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP992025 10/03/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 25 29 36 42 56 70 81 90 93 91 86 81 77 72 66 60 V (KT) LAND 20 25 29 36 42 56 70 81 90 93 91 86 81 77 72 66 60 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 37 48 61 73 78 77 75 71 65 58 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 18 18 16 11 8 5 8 11 9 7 7 3 2 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 2 0 -1 0 -2 -3 0 2 -1 -4 0 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 71 65 51 57 62 26 36 100 106 120 114 141 132 103 93 181 188 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.3 27.0 26.7 26.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 161 161 162 161 160 161 162 164 160 155 147 134 129 121 111 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.3 -52.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 5 7 6 9 5 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 82 81 79 79 76 77 75 73 68 66 65 66 58 54 48 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 13 14 18 24 28 31 35 36 36 35 35 34 32 27 850 MB ENV VOR 7 1 0 4 23 23 39 53 87 84 74 58 72 93 90 69 64 200 MB DIV 120 132 106 100 110 123 112 123 99 98 101 42 15 16 36 5 16 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 0 0 0 3 0 0 -13 -4 0 -2 -1 1 4 -1 LAND (KM) 551 558 549 524 491 412 311 192 113 145 263 124 209 326 464 536 438 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.8 15.7 16.9 18.3 19.6 20.9 21.9 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.1 103.7 104.2 104.4 104.5 104.3 104.4 105.2 106.8 108.7 110.5 112.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 6 4 4 5 7 9 11 11 9 9 9 7 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 35 37 39 40 41 41 39 39 39 28 18 8 3 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 34. 36. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 14. 23. 30. 35. 35. 33. 28. 26. 22. 19. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 16. 22. 36. 50. 61. 70. 73. 71. 66. 61. 57. 52. 46. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.5 102.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 10/03/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.93 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 12.3% 3.0% 2.2% 0.6% 12.3% 42.2% 20.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 6.8% Consensus: 0.3% 4.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 4.2% 14.1% 9.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 12.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 9.0% 25.0% 13.0% SDCON: 0.1% 8.1% 3.0% 0.8% 0.1% 6.6% 19.5% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 10/03/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##