* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP992025 10/02/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 29 34 40 51 64 76 84 91 91 91 86 81 74 70 64 V (KT) LAND 20 24 29 34 40 51 64 76 84 91 91 91 86 81 74 70 64 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 27 34 43 52 63 71 76 75 71 66 60 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 25 18 18 15 10 11 11 9 8 10 8 7 12 10 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -2 -1 1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 -4 -4 0 6 SHEAR DIR 78 78 69 54 46 45 27 50 63 101 117 99 89 102 106 204 286 SST (C) 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 30.0 29.1 28.9 27.6 27.3 26.6 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 159 161 161 161 160 160 158 159 165 156 154 140 136 128 119 114 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 83 82 81 80 79 79 76 74 70 68 63 65 64 65 60 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 13 16 21 24 27 32 34 36 36 35 34 33 29 850 MB ENV VOR 4 4 4 -2 5 25 28 43 71 76 64 65 80 101 91 94 81 200 MB DIV 118 129 135 120 96 106 151 102 90 87 96 101 39 10 12 -13 -26 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 -1 -3 -7 -11 -7 -4 3 4 10 LAND (KM) 538 550 548 558 526 466 389 288 197 187 326 246 353 445 554 631 623 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.5 15.3 16.3 17.6 18.8 20.0 20.9 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.7 103.3 104.0 104.5 105.1 105.2 105.1 105.5 106.7 108.8 111.0 113.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 4 5 6 8 10 12 11 10 8 6 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 36 38 39 40 40 39 37 35 27 15 6 3 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 20. 26. 33. 34. 35. 31. 27. 23. 21. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 31. 44. 56. 64. 71. 71. 71. 66. 61. 54. 50. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.4 102.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 10/02/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 18.4% 5.0% 3.1% 1.2% 17.6% 51.0% 23.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.7% 4.4% Consensus: 0.4% 6.7% 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 6.0% 17.6% 9.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 10/02/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##