* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992025 07/30/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 44 55 63 71 74 72 65 55 48 39 33 25 18 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 44 55 63 71 74 72 65 55 48 39 33 25 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 47 52 53 48 39 32 27 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 13 11 15 8 2 6 7 10 15 16 17 21 23 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 6 6 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 15 356 8 2 349 335 299 310 218 242 215 235 250 254 243 257 256 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.2 26.7 26.2 24.6 23.4 22.3 22.2 22.5 22.8 23.4 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 152 150 151 148 133 128 111 97 85 84 87 91 97 102 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 82 83 81 82 79 73 69 64 63 64 61 56 53 45 42 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 15 15 17 18 21 21 22 20 16 14 11 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 4 11 14 16 17 33 50 48 51 38 24 -2 -5 -24 -28 -39 -38 200 MB DIV 101 140 148 145 123 84 80 120 82 37 14 0 -7 -23 -16 -6 -6 700-850 TADV -7 -12 -10 -14 -18 -14 -12 -5 -2 -3 -2 -3 0 -4 -5 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 927 1009 1079 1148 1229 1262 1322 1414 1546 1668 1783 1879 1914 1902 1678 1439 1210 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.3 13.2 14.5 15.9 17.2 18.6 20.1 21.3 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.9 111.3 112.6 113.8 116.2 118.9 121.8 124.9 127.9 130.4 132.5 134.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 12 12 14 15 17 16 15 13 11 10 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 32 32 32 30 25 10 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 39.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 19. 26. 32. 34. 35. 33. 30. 27. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 13. 15. 16. 13. 7. 4. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 8. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 30. 38. 46. 49. 47. 40. 30. 23. 14. 8. 0. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 108.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 07/30/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.81 7.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.46 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.81 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.29 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.5% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 23.3% 22.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 22.5% 8.6% 5.1% 1.3% 11.0% 31.3% 16.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 1.6% Consensus: 0.8% 16.6% 9.3% 1.8% 0.5% 11.5% 18.2% 5.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 07/30/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##