* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992025 07/30/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 41 47 59 68 72 75 71 63 54 47 40 35 30 24 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 41 47 59 68 72 75 71 63 54 47 40 35 30 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 44 46 46 44 39 34 29 26 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 14 15 14 16 10 8 7 8 5 11 11 12 14 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 5 6 4 4 0 -4 -1 -3 0 7 0 -1 1 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 5 326 331 350 336 321 301 285 208 257 223 220 222 236 222 241 248 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 28.8 27.4 26.4 25.6 24.6 24.1 23.4 22.1 23.0 23.3 23.8 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 157 158 155 141 131 122 111 105 97 83 93 96 101 104 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 78 77 78 79 79 71 68 64 60 59 57 52 49 47 43 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 15 16 19 20 21 23 23 21 17 14 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -4 3 13 6 9 30 34 49 54 63 41 17 -3 -23 -36 -46 200 MB DIV 71 120 150 157 134 64 41 57 71 25 2 13 5 -7 9 2 3 700-850 TADV 0 -10 -12 -13 -11 -9 -6 -7 5 -5 -3 -4 1 2 3 1 -1 LAND (KM) 794 807 838 880 918 999 1046 1222 1437 1677 1893 2058 2007 1794 1563 1344 1140 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.6 13.2 14.6 16.0 17.1 18.0 18.6 19.3 20.0 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.4 107.8 109.3 110.7 113.6 116.8 120.5 124.3 128.0 131.1 133.5 135.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 17 18 19 18 17 13 11 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 37 34 31 24 17 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 34. 35. 34. 32. 29. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 17. 14. 9. 5. 2. -0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 22. 34. 43. 47. 50. 46. 38. 29. 22. 15. 10. 5. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 105.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 07/30/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.35 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 126.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.78 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.9% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 20.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 25.3% 12.2% 7.3% 1.1% 11.0% 11.9% 9.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.2% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% Consensus: 1.6% 18.1% 10.8% 2.7% 0.4% 11.2% 10.9% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 07/30/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##