* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992025 07/29/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 47 54 61 66 66 60 53 45 39 33 28 22 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 47 54 61 66 66 60 53 45 39 33 28 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 35 37 37 33 29 24 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 15 13 12 12 12 11 14 10 13 20 18 17 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 4 6 3 1 0 -2 -2 -1 5 3 0 0 3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 357 327 325 335 346 322 305 284 241 248 251 237 245 247 243 233 255 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.5 27.3 26.4 25.3 23.9 23.2 22.2 22.2 22.8 23.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 155 155 156 152 139 130 119 104 95 85 85 91 94 102 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 78 80 73 69 66 62 62 61 60 57 52 46 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 11 12 13 15 17 18 20 21 19 15 12 11 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -6 -6 0 7 -2 22 26 31 31 36 29 3 -1 -21 -20 -39 200 MB DIV 51 54 91 127 146 95 56 48 77 80 25 31 10 -15 -14 -25 -18 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -11 -15 -11 -13 -9 -13 -3 0 5 3 16 6 2 2 -5 LAND (KM) 767 797 820 855 893 978 1013 1082 1228 1390 1564 1727 1858 1940 1813 1557 1322 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.3 13.4 14.8 16.1 17.2 18.4 19.5 20.6 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.9 106.2 107.6 109.0 111.7 114.4 117.4 120.7 124.1 127.4 130.1 132.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 14 14 16 16 17 17 15 13 13 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 31 35 37 37 35 30 23 14 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 10. 18. 26. 32. 35. 36. 36. 33. 30. 27. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 16. 17. 13. 8. 3. 2. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 22. 29. 36. 41. 41. 35. 28. 20. 14. 8. 3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 103.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 07/29/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.40 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.62 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.4% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 19.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 4.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 2.0% 4.3% 6.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 0.2% 9.3% 5.7% 0.3% 0.0% 7.7% 7.9% 2.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 07/29/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##