* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992025 07/29/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 34 42 50 58 63 66 64 60 52 46 39 32 25 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 34 42 50 58 63 66 64 60 52 46 39 32 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 36 36 35 32 28 23 19 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 13 13 12 13 15 10 10 9 11 8 18 18 20 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 5 7 1 0 -3 -2 0 0 8 0 1 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 2 354 341 341 351 334 313 281 284 219 256 223 216 227 232 229 251 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.9 27.9 27.2 25.0 23.5 22.8 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.6 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 156 154 155 155 145 139 115 100 92 84 86 87 88 95 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 78 77 79 79 79 79 72 68 65 64 63 62 61 55 49 44 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 14 15 17 18 19 19 17 14 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 5 0 0 0 5 7 11 28 21 26 26 26 7 -1 -14 -14 -3 200 MB DIV 39 46 57 97 140 148 72 40 48 84 59 39 3 -16 -29 -25 -15 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -7 -13 -10 -9 -15 -4 -11 2 -7 2 2 3 2 1 -1 LAND (KM) 752 772 812 846 887 953 1071 1063 1168 1282 1436 1597 1767 1815 1926 1755 1533 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.7 13.8 15.2 16.6 18.2 19.3 20.7 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.8 105.2 106.6 108.0 110.6 113.3 116.0 119.1 122.3 125.6 128.7 131.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 14 14 14 15 16 17 17 17 15 13 12 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 35 36 36 32 28 23 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 19. 27. 33. 36. 37. 38. 35. 32. 28. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 12. 9. 5. 2. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 17. 25. 33. 38. 41. 39. 35. 27. 21. 14. 7. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.6 102.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 07/29/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.85 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.39 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.29 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 19.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 6.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 2.5% 7.2% 10.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 0.2% 8.8% 5.1% 0.3% 0.1% 7.4% 8.8% 3.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 07/29/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##