* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992025 07/29/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 40 47 54 60 63 63 60 54 47 40 33 27 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 34 40 47 54 60 63 63 60 54 47 40 33 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 29 30 31 31 30 28 24 20 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 16 14 14 17 16 14 13 13 11 13 17 22 24 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 3 5 0 0 -2 -2 -1 3 6 0 -2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 20 3 360 348 344 344 340 322 294 250 231 240 218 233 228 231 236 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.6 27.6 26.3 24.6 23.0 22.2 22.0 22.3 22.7 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 156 156 154 155 152 142 129 112 95 86 83 86 90 98 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 79 79 80 76 73 70 66 63 65 59 58 52 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 13 14 15 15 16 18 19 17 15 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 1 1 1 13 -2 14 12 14 12 15 6 -2 -5 -18 -9 200 MB DIV 76 47 42 70 111 173 128 73 30 66 86 50 27 7 -22 -22 -25 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -7 -6 -14 -14 -13 -7 -18 -2 -7 1 4 5 5 0 1 LAND (KM) 752 773 811 847 877 957 1017 1066 1049 1116 1238 1393 1587 1701 1821 1814 1569 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.7 12.7 14.1 15.8 17.6 19.2 20.8 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.6 102.7 104.0 105.3 106.6 109.1 111.5 114.0 116.6 119.6 122.9 126.4 129.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 16 17 18 18 16 14 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 30 33 35 34 31 27 19 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 10. 19. 28. 34. 38. 39. 39. 37. 34. 31. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. 5. 2. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 22. 29. 35. 38. 38. 35. 29. 22. 15. 8. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 101.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 07/29/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.43 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.50 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.4% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 17.5% 4.6% 2.3% 0.9% 4.6% 8.3% 13.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.8% 2.1% Consensus: 0.5% 12.5% 6.0% 0.8% 0.3% 7.9% 9.1% 5.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 07/29/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##