* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992025 07/29/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 45 54 57 65 67 66 64 59 53 47 40 32 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 45 54 57 65 67 66 64 59 53 47 40 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 34 35 36 39 40 38 34 29 24 19 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 17 17 14 15 16 13 11 8 9 10 10 18 19 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 0 5 2 2 -4 -2 0 0 4 1 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 40 19 6 12 4 338 353 332 331 295 229 253 216 220 232 260 239 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.3 27.5 25.9 24.0 22.2 21.4 21.0 21.9 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 155 155 154 152 151 153 149 141 124 105 86 78 73 83 90 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 78 78 80 79 79 79 79 71 70 68 68 68 62 55 49 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 13 13 16 14 16 16 17 15 13 11 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 10 5 6 10 10 13 14 1 19 2 0 -19 -21 -30 -40 -49 -30 200 MB DIV 68 67 35 41 66 156 200 90 24 27 76 35 35 -17 -9 -14 8 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -9 -8 -7 -16 -15 -21 -8 -17 -2 -9 9 13 13 9 11 LAND (KM) 757 783 829 879 930 1020 1106 1164 1117 1062 1049 1061 1107 1262 1352 1500 1682 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 11.2 12.2 14.0 15.9 17.9 20.0 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.1 102.2 103.5 104.8 106.1 108.5 110.9 112.9 114.9 116.9 119.0 121.3 124.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 14 14 14 16 16 17 15 15 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 27 30 31 32 32 32 27 17 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 20. 28. 35. 39. 41. 42. 40. 37. 33. 30. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 6. 9. 9. 9. 7. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 29. 32. 40. 42. 41. 40. 34. 28. 22. 15. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 101.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 07/29/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.44 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.5% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 18.6% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 29.3% 7.3% 4.2% 1.9% 8.8% 16.7% 19.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% 2.2% Consensus: 1.0% 17.4% 7.2% 1.4% 0.6% 9.7% 12.1% 7.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 07/29/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##