* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992025 07/28/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 44 50 56 60 62 61 59 54 49 44 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 39 44 50 56 60 62 61 59 54 49 44 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 34 34 34 35 35 32 28 23 19 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 10 12 12 14 14 15 9 3 7 9 11 18 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -2 0 0 7 9 4 -3 -6 2 6 6 7 7 8 5 SHEAR DIR 75 77 76 70 62 38 7 1 3 331 326 212 234 230 246 249 253 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.1 27.2 25.6 23.7 22.4 21.4 20.7 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 156 154 152 151 149 149 152 147 138 121 101 87 76 68 69 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 78 78 77 76 74 68 66 64 64 64 60 57 52 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 4 7 5 5 9 17 6 0 0 -9 -19 -18 -34 -25 -31 -51 200 MB DIV 66 68 54 45 56 107 173 161 79 15 24 7 -11 -14 4 -43 -14 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 0 -5 -5 -8 -6 -4 0 0 11 12 21 28 30 LAND (KM) 726 762 807 874 944 1052 1127 1174 1187 1112 1036 1007 1013 1035 1113 1239 1302 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.9 10.6 12.0 14.1 16.3 18.4 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.2 101.2 102.3 103.6 104.9 107.1 109.2 111.1 113.0 115.0 117.0 119.0 121.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 13 12 10 10 11 13 15 15 14 14 13 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 25 27 28 29 31 32 32 27 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 20. 29. 36. 40. 43. 44. 44. 41. 37. 33. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 19. 25. 31. 35. 37. 36. 34. 29. 24. 19. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.9 100.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP992025 INVEST 07/28/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.84 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.67 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.4% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.5% 18.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 4.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 2.5% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 0.1% 8.1% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 6.9% 6.9% 2.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992025 INVEST 07/28/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##