* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP982025 09/30/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 34 36 40 45 47 48 47 45 43 41 39 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 34 36 40 45 47 48 47 45 43 41 39 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 30 32 33 34 36 37 39 39 40 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 23 25 30 24 16 15 16 19 19 23 21 18 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -4 -2 -2 -1 -4 -6 -9 -6 -9 -5 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 65 64 67 78 80 74 76 73 68 75 72 61 58 76 90 80 97 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.1 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 136 137 138 137 133 135 139 140 139 140 138 135 132 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 70 72 73 76 79 78 76 73 70 68 64 58 51 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 15 15 13 12 14 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 41 45 44 46 45 49 53 72 87 85 95 86 73 59 60 64 60 200 MB DIV 43 59 48 46 71 71 60 71 79 71 73 70 38 22 8 -7 -9 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 1398 1419 1441 1434 1426 1374 1328 1255 1275 1308 1358 1392 1414 1444 1482 1482 1462 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 5 7 6 5 5 4 2 2 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 28 27 27 26 26 27 27 27 26 25 24 23 21 20 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 30. 29. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -14. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. -25. -24. -21. -19. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 2. 1. -0. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 6. 10. 15. 17. 18. 17. 15. 13. 11. 9. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.1 112.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982025 INVEST 09/30/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.64 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.32 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.23 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.98 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 12.2% 10.6% 8.0% 0.0% 12.2% 12.2% 9.6% Logistic: 0.3% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 5.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.7% 3.6% 2.7% 0.0% 4.1% 4.5% 5.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% SDCON: 1.6% 5.3% 3.3% 1.8% 0.5% 4.0% 4.2% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982025 INVEST 09/30/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##