* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP982025 09/29/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 36 38 38 38 36 39 41 43 43 42 39 38 36 36 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 36 38 38 38 36 39 41 43 43 42 39 38 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 35 35 36 36 35 34 33 33 33 34 34 33 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 18 19 25 28 31 29 28 21 20 13 15 15 12 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 -4 -2 -3 0 -5 -1 0 -2 -3 0 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 66 59 54 59 69 66 73 71 55 53 80 103 104 146 145 140 114 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.0 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 136 136 136 136 136 138 139 141 132 128 128 129 131 133 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 69 67 70 69 74 74 78 76 75 73 72 66 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 12 12 13 13 12 11 13 15 16 16 16 17 17 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 36 37 37 37 42 47 47 49 61 70 64 60 57 60 64 56 45 200 MB DIV 25 45 73 62 54 85 69 104 117 88 96 101 68 67 71 24 17 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 -5 -2 0 1 7 4 2 1 LAND (KM) 1367 1448 1492 1519 1531 1479 1393 1299 1212 1102 989 844 724 653 635 646 687 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 8.9 8.7 8.7 8.8 9.5 10.1 10.7 11.4 12.7 14.4 15.8 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.0 113.4 113.8 114.1 114.2 113.7 113.1 112.7 112.6 112.7 112.8 112.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 8 8 7 5 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 28 29 29 29 27 26 26 27 29 29 24 18 16 14 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 16. 21. 25. 29. 32. 33. 32. 31. 28. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -15. -24. -30. -33. -34. -34. -31. -28. -24. -21. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 10. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 1. 0. -0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 9. 8. 6. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.3 112.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982025 INVEST 09/29/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.65 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.42 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 14.9% 13.0% 10.2% 0.0% 15.0% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.5% 4.4% 3.4% 0.0% 5.0% 4.9% 1.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.9% 4.7% 3.2% 2.2% 0.5% 3.0% 3.4% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982025 INVEST 09/29/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##