* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP982025 09/29/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 39 42 42 40 43 45 49 50 49 48 46 45 44 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 39 42 42 40 43 45 49 50 49 48 46 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 36 38 40 42 42 41 40 38 38 38 38 39 38 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 17 16 15 23 30 34 29 19 20 18 12 12 11 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 -2 -1 2 0 -3 -2 -1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 82 69 74 61 59 64 74 67 54 53 85 107 95 117 133 160 164 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 139 138 139 137 138 138 138 139 144 142 137 134 136 137 138 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.4 -54.0 -54.4 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 70 70 70 70 69 72 74 76 76 74 73 71 68 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 9 13 13 15 16 15 16 16 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 27 32 32 39 40 41 49 58 59 58 57 59 45 54 58 63 45 200 MB DIV 42 43 52 70 75 64 84 73 127 120 114 118 99 66 71 43 48 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 0 0 4 5 4 LAND (KM) 1258 1353 1436 1513 1566 1610 1570 1495 1389 1232 1032 859 714 598 537 505 470 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 9.9 9.5 9.1 8.9 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.8 10.9 13.0 15.2 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.9 113.6 114.2 114.7 115.3 115.1 114.3 113.3 112.4 112.0 111.8 111.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 5 2 3 5 6 8 12 10 7 4 2 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 27 28 29 29 28 28 27 27 28 26 22 19 18 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 27. 31. 35. 37. 37. 35. 33. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -12. -22. -28. -32. -33. -33. -31. -27. -22. -19. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. -0. -1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 12. 12. 10. 13. 15. 19. 20. 19. 18. 16. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.3 112.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982025 INVEST 09/29/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.67 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 15.7% 14.3% 11.5% 0.0% 17.1% 15.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 6.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 3.9% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.6% 5.3% 4.1% 0.2% 5.9% 6.3% 2.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% SDCON: 2.7% 7.3% 4.6% 3.0% 0.6% 3.9% 4.1% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982025 INVEST 09/29/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##