* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP982025 09/29/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 38 39 39 41 45 48 47 46 44 41 40 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 38 39 39 41 45 48 47 46 44 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 27 26 27 28 29 30 30 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 19 16 15 21 27 29 28 22 18 15 12 9 10 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 0 0 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 91 83 72 64 60 62 70 65 56 53 76 88 123 105 125 146 192 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 138 138 137 137 137 137 138 140 142 143 132 132 130 129 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 71 71 69 70 69 72 75 80 77 74 70 67 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 13 12 11 12 13 15 17 17 17 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 27 36 45 44 45 48 56 55 51 62 67 67 55 46 53 52 48 200 MB DIV 30 48 62 75 93 58 65 66 73 82 85 78 73 46 37 27 19 700-850 TADV 3 4 2 2 1 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 2 4 3 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1180 1275 1358 1433 1486 1517 1466 1371 1276 1180 1107 966 859 814 798 775 712 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 9.9 9.4 9.0 8.7 8.8 9.4 10.1 10.8 11.8 13.2 15.0 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.7 112.3 112.9 113.3 113.9 113.9 113.4 112.9 112.7 113.1 113.8 114.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 6 4 3 4 4 4 7 9 9 8 6 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 27 28 29 29 28 27 26 27 30 28 20 14 11 8 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 36. 39. 39. 38. 35. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -10. -18. -24. -28. -30. -30. -28. -24. -20. -17. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 16. 20. 23. 22. 21. 19. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 110.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982025 INVEST 09/29/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.43 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.46 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.9% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% 4.6% 0.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982025 INVEST 09/29/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##