* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP982025 09/29/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 15 17 19 21 24 28 32 34 35 37 41 45 45 44 43 40 38 V (KT) LAND 15 17 19 21 24 28 32 34 35 37 41 45 45 44 43 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 15 15 16 17 18 18 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 20 20 18 20 28 28 25 22 17 13 15 9 10 9 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 88 85 79 71 60 62 71 68 67 51 74 90 124 129 122 144 180 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 137 135 135 135 137 138 138 139 144 143 133 130 125 124 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -54.0 -53.7 -54.4 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 69 71 69 70 71 69 69 70 72 77 78 79 75 71 65 59 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 14 16 16 17 17 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 18 28 36 45 47 47 53 57 54 60 72 69 62 54 56 55 48 200 MB DIV -2 26 48 48 64 79 54 72 73 90 80 71 74 49 17 8 3 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 1 1 0 -3 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 2 4 4 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1118 1235 1320 1380 1426 1426 1358 1240 1148 1080 1045 960 887 889 900 909 868 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 9.6 9.0 8.6 8.3 8.6 9.4 10.5 11.4 12.3 13.6 15.1 16.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.5 111.0 111.4 111.7 112.2 112.3 112.0 111.8 111.9 112.7 113.9 115.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 5 3 3 6 5 4 6 9 10 9 7 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 28 29 29 28 27 26 27 27 30 28 19 13 10 7 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ -9 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 10. 19. 27. 33. 38. 42. 45. 46. 45. 43. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -17. -23. -27. -29. -28. -26. -22. -18. -16. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 7. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 20. 22. 26. 30. 30. 29. 28. 25. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 10.4 109.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982025 INVEST 09/29/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.1% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 2.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982025 INVEST 09/29/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##