* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982025 07/30/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 35 38 42 43 42 40 39 41 46 47 49 49 44 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 35 38 42 43 42 40 39 41 46 47 49 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 29 31 34 36 35 35 35 37 41 45 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 14 12 7 3 2 2 12 10 6 1 3 6 14 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -2 -5 -2 -2 -4 -2 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 44 41 43 35 47 358 17 204 219 254 290 278 288 268 290 285 270 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.5 28.0 27.8 27.2 26.5 27.0 27.2 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 144 141 141 146 144 138 130 136 138 143 145 148 149 148 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 49 49 52 50 51 51 49 53 52 53 49 50 51 57 59 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 17 26 28 24 20 24 10 11 5 1 7 19 35 53 48 32 12 200 MB DIV -16 -47 -67 -68 -32 -1 37 46 22 27 -16 -19 33 51 65 14 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 2 2 4 0 1 0 -4 -5 -3 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 1982 1840 1697 1557 1415 1157 918 743 695 826 1056 1316 1548 1782 1971 2101 2208 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.3 12.6 12.7 12.4 11.9 11.0 10.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.6 140.0 141.5 143.0 144.5 147.5 150.5 153.4 156.3 159.4 162.4 165.3 168.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 22 21 21 22 17 19 23 26 37 45 50 54 57 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. 44. 46. 46. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 13. 12. 10. 9. 11. 16. 17. 19. 19. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.9 138.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982025 INVEST 07/30/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -46.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.96 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% Logistic: 0.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 4.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982025 INVEST 07/30/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##