* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982025 07/29/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 31 35 38 41 43 42 41 42 45 48 51 51 48 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 31 35 38 41 43 42 41 42 45 48 51 51 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 28 28 28 29 31 33 34 33 33 33 35 38 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 19 16 13 6 7 4 6 11 11 9 8 8 10 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 1 0 0 -1 -1 0 -4 0 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 49 43 38 38 28 21 2 326 229 243 268 282 298 294 278 259 291 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.8 28.0 27.5 26.8 26.7 27.0 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 143 145 145 142 144 146 141 134 133 136 140 143 145 147 145 144 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 50 49 49 51 50 51 51 51 52 53 52 49 50 54 57 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 5 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 17 15 24 25 19 21 17 9 8 3 7 11 19 38 49 46 41 200 MB DIV 5 -15 -43 -67 -85 -10 8 46 13 41 9 17 -1 34 62 98 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -1 0 1 4 3 2 -2 2 -4 -3 0 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 2126 2001 1868 1733 1592 1302 1043 819 685 735 937 1190 1406 1640 1885 2098 2271 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.5 12.8 12.7 12.4 11.9 11.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.2 138.4 139.7 141.1 142.6 145.8 148.9 151.9 154.9 158.0 161.3 164.5 167.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 14 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 21 21 22 20 21 20 17 21 23 31 41 46 52 56 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 20. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. 44. 45. 45. 46. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 1. 5. 8. 11. 13. 12. 11. 12. 15. 18. 21. 21. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 137.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982025 INVEST 07/29/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -41.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: .6% 1.1% .5% .5% 0% .5% .5% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982025 INVEST 07/29/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##