* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982025 07/29/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 31 34 38 41 43 42 41 41 44 47 49 52 49 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 31 34 38 41 43 42 41 41 44 47 49 52 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 26 28 30 32 34 34 33 34 36 39 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 19 19 14 9 4 4 4 6 10 7 5 4 7 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 5 0 0 -2 -1 4 -1 1 -5 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 52 49 45 42 41 34 357 356 294 226 252 285 289 257 259 292 286 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.9 28.0 27.1 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 140 142 144 142 145 146 137 130 135 137 141 143 145 147 146 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 54 52 51 51 51 51 53 51 53 51 51 48 47 50 52 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 18 18 15 24 25 19 21 7 -3 3 3 11 19 32 50 50 45 200 MB DIV 19 15 -10 -31 -68 -55 2 23 16 11 1 -1 10 31 45 57 53 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 0 2 1 4 3 0 -1 0 -2 0 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 2261 2145 2016 1883 1748 1456 1171 924 722 661 792 1030 1260 1486 1742 1947 2125 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.0 12.7 12.3 11.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.9 137.0 138.3 139.6 141.0 144.1 147.3 150.4 153.4 156.3 159.3 162.5 165.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 13 15 15 16 15 14 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 22 22 22 21 21 22 16 17 21 25 35 43 48 53 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 27. 33. 37. 39. 42. 43. 44. 44. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -12. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 12. 11. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.5 135.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982025 INVEST 07/29/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.66 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.10 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.09 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.80 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 10.5% 6.6% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.8% 2.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: .6% 2.9% 1.6% 1.2% 0% 0% .5% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982025 INVEST 07/29/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##