* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982025 07/29/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 30 33 37 42 47 50 50 48 49 50 54 56 53 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 30 33 37 42 47 50 50 48 49 50 54 56 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 26 27 29 33 38 41 41 41 41 45 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 23 21 18 10 5 4 2 1 8 9 5 4 4 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 4 0 0 -1 1 3 0 2 -4 1 2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 51 51 50 54 52 39 49 42 50 221 242 273 296 350 218 299 275 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.6 28.2 27.8 26.9 26.6 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 139 140 142 144 142 148 144 134 131 137 137 142 144 144 146 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 51 52 53 55 52 52 51 50 49 47 47 51 52 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 16 15 23 20 25 21 3 1 8 7 14 25 48 48 47 200 MB DIV 35 15 10 -12 -34 -81 -21 28 44 24 31 -13 3 -3 26 46 45 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 3 3 1 -5 1 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2364 2268 2148 2030 1898 1619 1349 1087 862 722 726 882 1100 1309 1526 1734 1916 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.4 12.6 12.5 12.2 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.0 136.0 137.2 138.4 139.7 142.6 145.5 148.5 151.3 154.1 156.9 160.1 163.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 13 15 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 23 23 23 21 22 21 17 20 24 27 37 44 48 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. 43. 44. 44. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -12. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 20. 18. 19. 20. 24. 26. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 135.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982025 INVEST 07/29/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 10.8% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 2.3% .5% 0% 0% 1.2% .5% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982025 INVEST 07/29/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##