* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982025 07/28/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 24 27 32 38 43 46 47 47 47 48 49 49 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 24 27 32 38 43 46 47 47 47 48 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 20 21 24 28 30 32 32 32 32 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 28 28 27 22 11 5 6 3 3 4 11 10 10 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 4 4 1 0 0 -3 0 -4 1 0 -1 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 58 53 54 49 44 51 62 83 91 154 214 232 272 271 277 271 273 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.4 27.4 26.9 27.2 27.0 27.5 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 144 142 143 143 145 146 147 150 140 134 137 135 140 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 56 56 52 55 53 54 53 56 53 53 51 46 48 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 5 4 6 11 8 7 15 9 7 8 -5 0 -9 -1 12 35 45 200 MB DIV 18 14 21 1 -2 -23 -61 -53 13 50 59 47 60 21 0 10 64 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 0 -5 0 -5 1 1 LAND (KM) 2627 2614 2530 2438 2332 2085 1811 1532 1273 1040 846 759 833 1013 1235 1419 1575 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.1 10.0 9.9 9.9 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.1 11.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.8 132.5 133.4 134.4 135.5 138.0 140.8 143.7 146.7 149.7 152.6 155.4 158.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 11 13 14 14 15 14 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 19 20 23 24 23 22 23 21 20 26 29 33 41 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 11. 20. 29. 36. 41. 44. 47. 49. 50. 49. 50. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -15. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 10. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -9. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 21. 22. 23. 22. 23. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 131.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982025 INVEST 07/28/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 1.2% .5% 0% 0% 0% .5% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982025 INVEST 07/28/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##