* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982025 07/28/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 24 25 29 33 38 41 42 41 40 41 43 43 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 24 25 29 33 38 41 42 41 40 41 43 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 19 20 23 26 29 31 31 30 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 28 28 27 28 24 16 7 4 4 2 6 12 17 13 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 2 3 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 2 8 7 SHEAR DIR 57 58 58 55 49 48 56 83 68 39 173 231 255 286 302 323 311 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.2 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 143 144 143 145 145 147 146 147 146 137 132 135 137 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 58 56 54 55 58 54 54 54 56 57 57 58 57 56 51 54 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 16 12 9 7 17 16 18 9 8 10 3 -4 -3 0 -5 13 35 200 MB DIV 37 19 8 13 11 -2 -32 -62 -14 23 55 23 47 42 37 -2 33 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 1 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 2604 2623 2535 2452 2365 2156 1904 1645 1388 1150 948 805 793 910 1107 1316 1473 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.0 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.8 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.6 132.3 133.2 134.1 135.1 137.3 139.9 142.7 145.6 148.5 151.3 154.3 157.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 14 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 19 20 22 25 24 22 23 25 21 23 27 29 36 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 11. 20. 28. 35. 41. 44. 47. 49. 50. 49. 49. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -18. -18. -18. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 10. 7. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 4. 8. 13. 16. 17. 16. 15. 16. 18. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 131.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982025 INVEST 07/28/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0% 1.8% .5% 0% 0% 0% 0% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982025 INVEST 07/28/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##