* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982025 07/28/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 27 26 26 26 29 32 36 37 38 36 36 37 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 27 26 26 26 29 32 36 37 38 36 36 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 26 26 24 22 21 21 21 22 23 24 23 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 28 31 31 27 23 11 9 5 2 9 13 18 22 23 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 1 1 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 56 58 56 57 54 46 58 94 139 167 145 222 240 255 275 296 279 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.3 27.7 26.8 26.2 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 139 141 144 144 146 147 146 150 143 134 127 132 135 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 58 56 54 54 54 56 53 53 52 56 54 56 55 54 51 54 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 11 17 12 9 9 16 15 19 4 12 9 4 -2 0 -11 -1 13 200 MB DIV 29 31 24 16 -3 8 -16 -67 -48 13 64 64 60 37 6 7 49 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 4 4 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 2516 2536 2588 2633 2540 2331 2061 1785 1486 1211 952 740 653 723 904 1066 1243 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.4 12.0 12.6 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.5 130.9 131.5 132.2 133.2 135.4 138.0 140.8 144.0 147.2 150.4 153.5 156.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 6 8 10 12 13 15 16 16 16 15 14 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 21 20 20 20 23 23 22 22 23 17 17 18 19 27 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 809 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 10. 18. 27. 34. 39. 43. 46. 47. 48. 47. 47. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -15. -21. -23. -23. -21. -20. -19. -17. -16. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 5. 7. 11. 12. 13. 11. 11. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 130.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982025 INVEST 07/28/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982025 INVEST 07/28/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##