* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/20/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 15 14 13 19 24 37 44 36 28 17 12 8 4 5 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -1 3 8 11 11 11 9 11 5 0 -3 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 92 107 117 130 146 174 192 205 219 228 211 201 200 175 200 174 329 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 25.6 24.7 24.4 23.9 23.4 22.7 29.6 21.5 20.7 15.8 15.9 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.7 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 119 109 106 101 97 91 163 78 69 60 59 57 56 57 58 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 4 2 5 0 3 0 2 0 2 0 700-500 MB RH 64 60 56 55 55 52 49 48 48 41 34 32 33 35 38 41 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 18 17 19 19 9 22 19 14 4 26 65 41 35 20 29 8 200 MB DIV -12 -13 10 3 -3 -7 4 39 25 22 0 8 -18 -2 0 -7 -28 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 3 1 -1 -9 -5 5 -1 10 0 5 0 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 522 522 528 528 528 488 293 79 -28 -247 -401 -481 -466 -438 -419 -407 -370 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.0 23.5 25.5 28.2 31.5 34.6 37.1 39.1 40.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.3 115.0 115.7 116.3 117.1 116.7 115.7 115.1 115.3 116.2 117.1 118.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 9 13 16 17 14 13 8 6 3 1 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 19 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -3. -8. -8. -5. -5. -4. 1. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 18. 21. 23. 21. 15. 7. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -10. -12. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -15. -18. -17. -15. -18. -14. -10. -14. -19. -23. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.8 113.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/20/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.52 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.45 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 58.2 to 0.0 0.80 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/20/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##