* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/19/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 28 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 28 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 30 29 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 15 14 11 7 15 27 39 49 55 52 48 39 37 35 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 0 2 4 3 9 10 3 0 -3 0 5 2 1 SHEAR DIR 61 57 64 83 106 149 179 201 212 220 220 227 246 258 252 276 290 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.1 26.3 25.4 24.5 22.8 22.8 22.2 31.2 31.5 31.5 31.5 31.5 31.5 30.9 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 135 127 117 107 89 90 86 174 172 172 171 171 172 173 62 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 1 4 5 4 4 5 4 5 1 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 62 62 58 57 53 51 53 51 48 46 50 47 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 7 6 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 40 38 35 22 7 19 6 24 24 38 10 21 0 30 12 -15 200 MB DIV -6 -10 -18 -22 -6 -17 -15 -3 18 14 22 6 14 18 29 10 -27 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 5 2 -6 -14 -2 0 3 1 4 15 56 72 LAND (KM) 547 530 523 552 546 559 528 408 166 26 -210 -457 -679 -885 -999 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.2 20.9 22.3 23.6 25.4 27.7 30.5 33.1 35.1 36.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.5 112.6 113.5 114.5 115.3 116.9 117.9 118.1 116.7 114.4 112.5 111.3 109.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 11 16 17 12 11 9 10 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 14 12 9 7 5 4 4 4 37 12 10 10 12 10 35 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -13. -9. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 13. 18. 22. 22. 15. 2. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -15. -18. -19. -17. -14. -11. -12. -16. -24. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.2 111.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/19/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.63 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.33 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.90 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 10.8% 6.0% 3.2% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.7% 2.0% 1.1% 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 2.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/19/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##