* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/18/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 25 26 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 19 16 12 11 9 14 21 35 44 51 52 38 29 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 2 1 1 -1 0 2 1 5 -1 0 6 7 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 63 68 74 76 75 99 126 165 185 201 210 213 223 223 216 214 268 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.0 26.6 24.9 23.5 23.2 22.4 22.0 21.5 21.5 20.7 15.3 15.1 17.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 155 151 145 130 112 97 94 86 83 78 79 70 62 61 61 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -53.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 3 0 3 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 79 74 72 71 70 64 65 60 61 56 51 44 42 37 40 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 36 43 50 57 43 27 16 -1 4 0 1 -5 22 45 47 60 64 200 MB DIV 38 18 28 16 7 -8 3 -7 -3 17 17 10 15 19 29 23 15 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -2 0 0 2 4 2 -4 -6 -9 -8 2 8 -6 4 LAND (KM) 562 576 606 547 525 558 579 619 609 499 344 143 -23 -320 -545 -729 -918 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.9 17.5 18.2 18.8 20.1 21.4 22.7 23.9 25.8 28.0 30.7 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.1 109.8 110.6 111.5 112.5 114.5 116.4 118.1 119.3 119.5 118.6 117.8 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 9 10 13 14 16 16 13 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 26 23 19 15 9 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 9. 11. 12. 11. 8. 4. -1. -7. -3. 6. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 8. -1. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.2 109.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/18/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.13 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.93 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.7% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 4.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 3.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 2.2% 2.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/18/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##