* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP962025 09/17/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 32 35 39 42 42 37 31 26 22 18 19 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 32 35 39 42 42 37 31 26 22 18 18 27 N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 24 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 22 20 17 15 9 10 12 21 28 38 44 54 48 52 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 3 2 4 0 -3 -5 -3 -2 1 5 4 7 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 63 77 75 79 82 84 91 135 166 195 198 204 200 202 213 217 212 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.2 26.8 25.7 24.2 23.0 22.4 21.7 21.3 20.4 15.5 16.2 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 158 158 153 147 133 121 105 92 86 80 77 68 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 82 81 79 77 71 66 64 59 58 51 49 46 45 45 47 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 15 14 14 13 12 11 9 7 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 34 48 45 53 63 70 83 70 64 51 34 27 2 6 32 59 55 200 MB DIV 71 81 61 39 22 47 28 -9 -26 -2 2 3 20 5 39 61 57 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -8 -3 -4 -7 -4 0 5 10 7 4 -6 -29 -20 0 0 LAND (KM) 537 523 573 634 647 674 782 871 940 983 998 937 662 308 -43 -477 -774 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.3 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.3 22.6 24.1 26.3 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.2 109.3 110.4 111.6 114.1 116.5 118.9 121.1 122.9 124.1 124.4 124.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 13 17 19 22 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 41 35 30 26 23 15 11 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 12. 17. 20. 20. 19. 16. 12. 7. 10. 17. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 3. -4. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 0. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 17. 12. 6. 1. -3. -7. -6. -7. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.9 107.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP962025 INVEST 09/17/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.17 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.5% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 15.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 3.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 5.0% 5.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 5.0% 3.0% 0.5% 0.0% 3.0% 4.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962025 INVEST 09/17/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##