* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952025 06/28/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 52 63 70 72 69 67 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 52 63 70 72 69 67 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 38 47 55 60 62 63 63 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 8 10 10 6 5 11 13 8 7 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -4 -1 0 -6 -5 -2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 84 52 56 102 47 104 67 131 126 151 354 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 30.0 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 27.6 27.5 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 158 159 164 161 162 159 155 139 138 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 5 6 6 7 5 5 3 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 83 85 85 84 85 82 82 78 75 71 69 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 12 13 12 12 11 12 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 31 34 39 52 80 90 99 94 86 71 58 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 106 111 107 134 112 115 110 118 110 43 28 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -5 -5 -3 -2 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 262 264 259 258 247 184 156 116 99 137 249 102 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 37 38 39 38 36 33 27 20 13 7 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 25. 27. 27. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 27. 38. 45. 47. 44. 42. 39. 38. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 97.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952025 INVEST 06/28/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.86 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.77 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.69 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.33 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 60% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 35.4% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31.4% 60.4% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 48.0% 30.7% 20.3% 12.5% 53.0% 79.1% 27.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 12.2% 11.3% 3.4% 1.0% 10.4% 14.5% 21.2% Consensus: 2.4% 31.9% 20.7% 7.9% 4.5% 31.6% 51.3% 16.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 61.0% SDCON: 1.7% 19.9% 12.3% 4.4% 2.2% 17.8% 29.6% 38.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952025 INVEST 06/28/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##