* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP922025 10/24/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 38 40 45 50 52 52 51 46 40 33 29 23 19 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 38 40 45 50 52 52 51 46 40 33 29 23 19 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 35 36 37 39 39 39 38 36 32 26 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 5 6 10 7 7 9 11 18 22 25 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 -4 -4 -1 1 4 4 1 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 181 193 193 201 212 161 180 154 216 153 194 188 192 194 211 231 254 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 25.9 25.5 25.1 25.7 25.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 140 139 136 129 128 129 129 128 121 117 113 119 112 111 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 62 61 63 63 62 64 64 66 67 62 59 52 49 41 38 33 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 11 13 15 15 15 15 13 9 7 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 4 11 14 7 6 19 24 28 14 12 3 3 1 -10 -26 -42 200 MB DIV 36 32 25 18 28 36 58 40 -5 -7 9 9 1 -5 -16 5 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 1 4 6 6 9 7 13 9 LAND (KM) 1171 1206 1252 1292 1329 1403 1498 1563 1615 1634 1654 1669 1671 1688 1728 1778 1839 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.4 15.3 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.3 116.2 116.9 117.5 118.5 119.5 120.4 121.4 122.3 123.4 124.5 125.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 6 4 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 21 20 20 17 14 13 12 11 10 8 5 3 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. 24. 22. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 1. -2. -4. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 15. 20. 22. 22. 21. 16. 10. 3. -1. -7. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 114.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 10/24/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.68 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.64 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 58.2 to 0.0 0.98 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.27 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 19.7% 16.2% 12.9% 0.0% 20.0% 18.0% 12.3% Logistic: 4.3% 20.6% 10.4% 4.5% 1.6% 4.0% 4.2% 8.9% Bayesian: 1.4% 3.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 14.5% 9.0% 5.8% 0.6% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 3.1% 9.7% 5.5% 3.4% 0.8% 4.5% 5.2% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 10/24/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##