* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP922025 10/24/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 38 41 46 52 54 53 51 48 42 35 31 26 21 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 38 41 46 52 54 53 51 48 42 35 31 26 21 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 37 39 41 42 42 40 38 34 30 26 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 9 9 7 7 9 6 5 8 4 16 19 21 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -2 1 0 -2 -2 -1 3 8 4 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 183 172 180 185 184 186 164 160 187 171 186 164 157 179 197 207 229 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 141 140 139 138 134 130 127 128 130 129 123 120 118 114 105 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 63 64 64 67 68 67 65 59 53 47 42 40 37 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 12 14 16 18 18 16 14 10 7 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 10 8 4 10 15 8 14 16 22 14 14 13 4 -2 -10 -32 -35 200 MB DIV 14 41 46 32 28 51 47 51 26 18 17 7 18 9 10 -1 8 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 0 2 6 7 9 9 9 13 LAND (KM) 1121 1163 1202 1241 1273 1347 1425 1506 1554 1556 1545 1480 1406 1392 1414 1436 1435 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.1 12.8 12.4 12.4 12.8 13.5 14.7 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.1 114.1 115.0 115.8 116.4 117.5 118.3 119.0 119.7 120.2 120.8 121.3 121.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 5 7 7 8 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 23 21 21 19 17 15 13 13 13 12 8 4 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. 27. 25. 23. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 12. 9. 6. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 16. 22. 24. 23. 21. 18. 12. 5. 1. -4. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 113.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 10/24/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.69 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 20.9% 17.1% 13.7% 0.0% 20.7% 18.8% 12.8% Logistic: 6.9% 27.5% 14.2% 7.9% 3.2% 6.3% 3.4% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 16.9% 10.5% 7.2% 1.1% 9.0% 7.4% 6.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 3.5% 10.9% 6.2% 4.1% 1.0% 5.0% 4.7% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 10/24/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##