* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP922025 10/24/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 31 35 42 46 48 47 47 43 36 31 26 20 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 31 35 42 46 48 47 47 43 36 31 26 20 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 28 28 29 29 30 29 28 27 23 19 15 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 6 9 11 10 8 12 11 5 6 7 10 18 24 23 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 -1 0 0 0 -4 -2 0 3 7 5 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 194 203 202 195 207 208 164 177 171 215 179 187 188 186 192 205 225 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.0 25.6 25.1 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 143 140 139 137 131 130 129 129 128 122 118 113 112 113 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 61 61 62 63 64 64 66 62 59 51 47 43 37 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 10 12 14 16 17 17 17 13 10 7 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 11 8 4 0 5 5 11 18 22 28 20 19 12 6 0 -18 -25 200 MB DIV 3 7 19 24 16 39 65 67 16 19 21 24 31 4 -10 5 -2 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 3 6 6 8 7 10 LAND (KM) 1039 1098 1139 1167 1202 1283 1372 1483 1586 1654 1691 1695 1668 1647 1627 1635 1642 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.4 12.9 12.7 12.8 13.2 13.9 15.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.0 114.0 114.9 115.8 117.2 118.3 119.3 120.5 121.5 122.5 123.4 124.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 25 25 23 22 21 18 15 12 12 11 11 9 6 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 30. 32. 32. 31. 29. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 6. 9. 11. 10. 9. 4. 0. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 10. 17. 21. 23. 22. 22. 18. 11. 6. 1. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 112.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 10/24/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.75 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.38 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.5% 15.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 17.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 21.2% 9.4% 5.3% 1.7% 4.3% 4.4% 8.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 13.7% 8.2% 1.8% 0.6% 7.7% 7.4% 2.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.8% 8.3% 4.6% 0.9% 0.3% 4.3% 4.7% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 10/24/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##