* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP922025 10/23/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 30 37 43 44 45 48 47 40 36 31 25 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 27 30 37 43 44 45 48 47 40 36 31 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 25 26 27 27 27 26 25 22 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 6 5 11 11 6 9 9 6 4 3 8 16 18 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 5 3 4 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 185 191 180 188 207 216 189 157 165 190 276 140 168 184 202 202 236 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.8 25.5 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 145 143 142 140 138 134 129 130 128 128 123 119 120 117 119 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 63 62 62 62 64 64 66 64 59 55 52 49 46 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 10 12 14 15 16 17 16 12 10 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 11 6 0 10 4 7 14 25 24 19 16 16 13 11 -4 200 MB DIV 6 3 15 28 34 22 53 71 32 4 45 55 23 8 -8 -17 -12 700-850 TADV -1 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 1 6 8 12 7 11 LAND (KM) 996 1048 1122 1163 1191 1275 1357 1442 1560 1632 1693 1722 1730 1739 1728 1727 1755 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.2 12.9 12.5 12.5 12.8 13.4 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.2 113.2 114.1 115.0 116.6 117.8 118.7 119.9 120.9 122.0 123.2 124.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 9 9 7 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 25 25 23 21 19 17 13 12 12 11 10 7 5 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. 33. 31. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 2. -0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 12. 18. 19. 20. 23. 22. 15. 11. 6. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 111.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 10/23/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.39 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.5% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 11.3% 4.5% 2.3% 0.5% 1.8% 1.7% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 9.6% 6.2% 0.8% 0.2% 6.3% 6.1% 1.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.3% 5.8% 3.6% 0.4% 0.1% 3.6% 3.5% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 10/23/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##