* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP922025 10/23/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 9 9 7 8 6 10 13 12 9 12 10 15 18 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 0 2 7 6 6 2 0 -1 0 4 7 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 127 167 202 227 259 261 221 198 168 169 174 204 205 216 210 208 226 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 26.8 26.4 25.3 25.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 143 143 142 137 136 136 138 137 136 137 132 128 117 113 111 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 66 69 67 68 70 69 72 73 76 73 71 66 58 54 49 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 3 5 11 9 5 0 -1 -3 7 2 1 -2 4 7 2 -9 -15 200 MB DIV -10 -23 -4 -11 -12 15 10 38 77 51 24 14 24 9 19 2 -30 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 3 3 5 11 12 11 11 LAND (KM) 1022 1068 1118 1148 1180 1241 1305 1374 1420 1429 1412 1435 1493 1544 1599 1635 1686 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.9 10.9 11.1 11.5 12.4 13.3 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 109.0 109.8 110.5 111.2 112.4 113.4 114.3 115.1 116.2 117.5 119.1 121.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 7 7 5 5 4 5 7 9 10 11 12 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 22 23 22 22 22 21 19 18 16 12 9 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 9. 18. 26. 32. 37. 41. 44. 46. 46. 45. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 9. 14. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. 15. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 10.3 108.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922025 INVEST 10/23/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 22.1% 6.0% 3.8% 0.4% 8.1% 1.3% 9.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 7.4% 2.0% 1.3% 0.1% 2.7% 0.4% 3.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922025 INVEST 10/23/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##