* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 10/18/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 23 28 34 39 44 44 44 43 42 41 42 41 39 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 23 28 34 39 44 44 44 43 42 41 42 41 39 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 22 22 22 21 20 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 8 8 11 14 10 12 13 14 16 20 24 21 13 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 -2 0 4 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 2 3 8 2 SHEAR DIR 103 100 94 92 89 111 118 123 141 165 182 188 187 198 216 269 284 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.2 26.4 26.6 25.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 152 152 152 156 154 145 142 141 142 142 136 128 130 117 132 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 8 8 5 6 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 76 75 73 73 74 70 69 65 62 55 50 44 43 42 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 9 10 15 21 10 -1 -3 -9 -16 -14 -1 14 11 15 9 200 MB DIV 15 19 34 38 32 24 21 18 11 -30 9 5 -10 6 18 -26 38 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 -1 0 2 -4 0 1 3 6 11 7 5 4 4 0 LAND (KM) 265 249 233 238 258 338 460 542 650 824 984 1103 1271 1460 1643 1823 2028 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.1 13.9 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.3 97.7 98.1 98.6 99.2 100.9 103.3 105.9 108.4 110.9 113.5 115.9 118.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 7 10 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 12 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 32 34 34 36 38 39 36 28 23 23 23 21 15 12 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 33. 37. 40. 42. 43. 44. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 24. 24. 23. 22. 22. 22. 21. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.4 97.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 10/18/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.6% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 4.2% 11.0% 15.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 3.7% 5.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 2.8% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 10/18/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##