* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 10/17/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 20 24 28 30 33 33 32 30 29 28 29 28 25 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 20 24 28 30 33 33 32 30 29 28 29 28 25 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 17 16 16 17 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 15 13 12 15 13 12 14 17 20 26 30 21 18 25 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 4 4 1 1 SHEAR DIR 100 104 112 116 114 112 133 134 158 169 177 181 196 211 239 275 273 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 26.7 26.0 26.4 25.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 150 150 151 155 152 146 142 142 142 141 131 123 127 120 116 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -55.0 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 73 74 74 71 73 71 70 65 63 56 51 45 44 43 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 17 12 15 18 27 17 8 1 -9 -20 -16 -18 0 -3 16 7 200 MB DIV 7 10 22 27 36 20 12 13 -22 0 13 1 -25 -1 8 -5 -39 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -3 4 3 4 13 12 7 7 7 4 LAND (KM) 311 298 292 302 321 371 484 583 686 831 977 1073 1207 1360 1501 1629 1780 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.5 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.6 98.8 99.1 99.5 99.9 101.2 103.2 105.7 108.2 110.8 113.3 115.7 118.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 8 11 13 12 12 13 11 10 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 31 33 35 35 38 38 35 29 24 23 23 21 15 12 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 42. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -12. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 4. 8. 10. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. 9. 8. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.3 98.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 10/17/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 10/17/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##