* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 10/17/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 18 17 18 21 25 30 31 31 29 27 25 23 21 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 20 18 18 17 18 21 25 30 31 31 29 27 25 23 21 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 14 11 11 14 15 13 13 16 25 33 38 31 31 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 -1 -6 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 96 103 111 115 123 106 122 129 153 181 198 198 208 215 228 224 240 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.0 28.5 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.3 25.6 25.4 24.5 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 156 157 158 161 155 151 142 138 134 131 125 117 114 105 100 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -56.1 -56.1 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 5 8 5 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 71 73 73 72 68 69 65 64 57 50 43 38 33 32 29 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 22 27 28 26 23 28 12 -3 -14 -34 -42 -39 -28 -26 -42 200 MB DIV 3 24 32 36 41 44 25 -10 -29 -8 26 18 -6 11 9 23 -20 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -3 0 -1 0 0 1 5 5 12 9 5 4 2 2 LAND (KM) 308 282 273 266 257 284 377 450 554 697 692 729 777 772 770 756 719 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.5 17.4 18.3 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.8 99.1 99.5 99.9 100.4 101.5 103.3 105.8 108.4 110.9 113.1 115.0 116.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 7 11 13 13 13 10 9 7 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 30 34 36 38 39 40 41 36 28 19 12 7 4 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 26. 31. 33. 35. 36. 35. 35. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -2. 1. 5. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -3. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.4 98.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 10/17/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 1.1% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 10/17/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##