* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 10/17/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 25 29 33 36 37 36 34 33 32 30 28 25 21 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 25 29 33 36 37 36 34 33 32 30 28 25 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 22 23 23 23 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 15 17 14 13 17 17 17 16 19 25 32 35 31 24 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -5 -3 -2 -4 -2 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 93 101 105 110 118 114 110 121 138 169 189 189 195 206 218 222 235 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.4 28.9 27.0 28.1 26.9 27.2 26.6 26.2 25.9 25.2 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 156 156 156 159 158 155 135 147 134 136 129 124 120 113 105 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 7 6 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 72 71 73 73 70 70 67 66 60 55 48 43 38 36 31 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 18 18 26 25 26 37 29 31 3 -3 -22 -41 -43 -35 -32 -34 200 MB DIV -19 5 34 42 40 39 34 -11 -6 -22 7 20 1 -18 6 20 -1 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -3 3 4 10 14 11 9 6 6 LAND (KM) 330 298 282 283 277 277 336 439 527 640 728 749 806 838 853 882 891 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.5 14.5 14.5 15.0 15.8 16.7 17.5 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.5 98.8 99.1 99.5 99.9 100.9 102.2 104.4 107.0 109.7 112.2 114.3 116.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 6 8 12 13 13 12 11 8 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 34 36 37 40 41 38 33 24 15 10 6 3 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. 34. 34. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 0. 4. 8. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. -0. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 98.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 10/17/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.29 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.7% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 5.4% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 5.8% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 6.3% 7.7% 2.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 3.9% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 4.3% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 10/17/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##