* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 10/17/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 40 44 46 47 46 44 43 42 40 36 32 29 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 40 44 46 47 46 44 43 42 40 36 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 34 35 35 35 34 32 30 27 23 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 14 17 16 13 16 16 21 20 20 22 30 38 40 33 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -1 -3 -4 -6 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 80 94 98 111 118 122 111 110 119 145 165 176 178 179 191 202 204 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 28.8 28.8 27.6 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 153 155 156 156 158 153 153 141 145 141 139 134 131 124 118 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -54.9 -55.2 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 7 5 7 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 73 73 71 71 70 68 61 55 49 46 42 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 14 17 27 29 33 31 26 25 10 0 -10 -20 -8 -14 -15 200 MB DIV 3 -21 0 13 28 46 56 27 9 -36 -6 -6 30 4 41 13 23 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 4 3 9 11 10 8 9 LAND (KM) 378 341 325 317 312 325 356 444 549 650 768 900 946 1023 1107 1173 1251 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.7 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.2 98.5 98.7 99.0 99.3 100.1 101.1 102.8 105.1 107.7 110.2 112.6 114.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 4 4 4 6 10 12 13 12 11 10 9 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 27 29 31 33 36 38 39 35 31 25 21 19 14 10 8 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. 36. 36. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. 17. 16. 14. 13. 12. 10. 6. 2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.6 98.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 10/17/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.41 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 19.1% 14.9% 11.6% 0.0% 19.8% 19.0% 17.7% Logistic: 1.4% 7.3% 1.8% 1.0% 0.8% 2.5% 15.8% 21.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% Consensus: 3.4% 9.9% 5.6% 4.2% 0.3% 7.5% 11.8% 13.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 6.4% 3.3% 2.6% 0.6% 4.2% 6.9% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 10/17/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##