* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 10/16/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 37 39 44 47 50 51 49 48 47 44 41 37 35 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 37 39 44 47 50 51 49 48 47 44 41 37 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 33 35 36 37 38 39 38 37 34 31 26 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 12 12 15 15 15 16 16 17 18 17 22 26 33 34 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 -4 -4 -2 -2 -5 -7 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 78 84 91 103 101 98 99 94 88 94 116 133 156 176 194 214 219 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.0 28.8 27.2 28.0 27.0 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 152 154 156 156 159 155 153 137 145 134 134 133 129 126 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 77 76 74 74 77 73 74 72 72 68 62 58 51 46 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 19 21 22 24 30 31 37 33 29 31 29 20 5 5 5 -11 200 MB DIV 35 27 13 18 21 32 35 58 13 32 17 12 34 10 -13 3 0 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 -6 0 -1 2 9 10 8 6 LAND (KM) 412 389 360 341 329 302 299 332 404 462 542 651 719 733 782 856 886 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.0 14.1 14.5 15.1 15.9 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.9 98.2 98.4 98.5 98.8 99.3 99.9 101.0 102.8 105.0 107.5 109.9 111.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 7 10 12 13 11 10 8 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 23 25 27 29 33 37 39 41 37 31 23 16 12 8 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 33. 34. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 14. 17. 20. 21. 19. 18. 17. 14. 11. 7. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 97.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 10/16/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.21 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 18.1% 14.7% 11.6% 0.0% 18.9% 18.0% 15.5% Logistic: 1.5% 9.5% 2.5% 1.3% 0.8% 2.6% 21.3% 28.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 2.1% Consensus: 3.4% 10.4% 5.8% 4.3% 0.3% 7.4% 13.3% 15.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.2% 6.7% 3.4% 2.6% 0.6% 4.2% 7.6% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 10/16/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##