* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 10/16/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 46 47 49 49 47 44 43 41 38 38 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 46 47 49 49 47 44 43 41 38 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 38 40 41 42 40 38 35 31 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 13 12 12 17 14 15 16 17 18 20 22 26 28 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 -5 -6 -5 -4 -3 -6 -6 -6 -3 -5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 100 89 88 100 103 98 102 89 92 92 96 112 133 158 176 198 222 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.1 29.1 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.2 27.3 27.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 153 154 157 157 159 155 156 146 141 141 135 136 135 131 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -54.4 -53.8 -54.3 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -54.9 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 5 4 6 4 6 4 5 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 73 75 75 74 73 74 73 73 71 71 68 62 56 48 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 7 8 9 8 7 6 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 18 17 19 25 25 33 32 20 24 28 17 14 1 7 2 200 MB DIV 17 20 15 11 12 28 20 40 49 69 73 56 21 12 -2 5 7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 2 1 7 8 6 3 LAND (KM) 444 436 421 406 392 366 362 362 422 475 496 533 610 666 663 698 736 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.6 14.0 14.7 15.6 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.9 98.4 98.7 98.9 99.1 99.4 99.9 100.7 102.1 104.0 106.1 108.1 109.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 2 3 3 5 8 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 22 24 26 30 33 37 38 38 35 29 22 16 12 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 433 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 19. 19. 17. 14. 13. 11. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.9 97.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 10/16/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.69 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.21 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 16.7% 14.5% 11.7% 0.0% 18.8% 17.7% 16.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 7.0% 14.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 3.0% 7.4% 5.2% 4.1% 0.1% 6.5% 8.3% 10.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.0% 5.2% 3.6% 2.5% 0.5% 3.7% 5.1% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 10/16/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##