* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 10/16/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 38 44 48 52 55 60 63 64 61 56 50 44 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 38 44 48 52 55 60 63 64 61 56 50 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 33 36 39 42 47 52 56 58 56 51 43 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 12 12 9 6 12 10 11 12 15 17 18 21 23 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -3 -2 -2 -3 -8 -5 -4 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 108 114 107 101 105 110 99 108 97 94 88 94 113 126 143 177 198 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.0 28.7 26.7 27.4 27.0 24.9 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 155 155 156 158 159 159 160 154 151 130 137 132 110 104 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.4 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 6 4 7 5 7 4 6 4 5 4 4 3 4 700-500 MB RH 76 75 72 73 75 73 76 74 72 71 70 68 65 62 54 48 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 11 13 14 15 15 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 17 12 9 13 16 15 28 27 34 38 30 23 22 22 29 21 16 200 MB DIV 25 32 51 46 36 40 24 30 37 56 102 94 112 68 59 14 -29 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -1 0 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 429 430 411 385 360 320 266 263 267 308 366 386 397 414 429 393 282 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.8 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.5 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.3 96.8 97.1 97.4 97.6 98.0 98.5 99.3 100.4 101.8 103.6 105.5 107.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 8 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 18 20 23 27 32 36 39 41 41 36 32 25 20 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 30. 33. 34. 31. 26. 20. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.8 96.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 10/16/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.58 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 18.0% 14.9% 11.8% 0.0% 19.8% 18.9% 21.4% Logistic: 0.2% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 2.8% 12.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 2.7% 7.0% 5.2% 4.0% 0.1% 6.9% 7.3% 11.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.3% 5.0% 3.1% 2.5% 0.5% 3.9% 5.1% 6.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 10/16/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##