* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 10/15/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 39 46 51 55 61 65 65 67 60 57 53 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 39 46 51 55 61 65 65 67 60 57 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 29 31 33 36 40 45 49 50 50 45 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 19 19 16 10 8 9 10 11 12 12 14 15 16 22 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -6 -6 -6 -2 0 -2 -1 1 0 -1 -3 -1 2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 150 137 130 135 136 154 143 110 110 115 82 105 122 136 163 176 204 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 26.7 27.1 26.5 27.4 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 155 158 161 163 162 161 160 159 155 131 135 128 137 165 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 4 4 6 4 7 5 8 5 7 4 5 3 5 2 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 74 72 72 70 69 68 65 62 61 61 57 47 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 13 14 15 18 19 19 22 18 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 6 14 19 19 10 15 19 29 43 51 45 30 23 39 29 22 34 200 MB DIV 35 20 32 38 51 74 80 40 29 46 55 74 43 118 30 -2 -12 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -3 -1 1 -3 -3 -6 -1 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 338 352 312 283 245 174 148 110 117 142 229 281 322 343 298 146 14 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.2 15.6 15.8 15.8 16.2 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.0 95.4 95.7 96.0 96.7 97.5 98.4 99.5 100.8 102.5 104.8 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 7 10 12 12 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 20 22 25 32 38 42 42 40 41 37 32 24 23 26 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 31. 33. 34. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 7. 8. 12. 13. 11. 13. 8. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -0. 1. 4. 9. 16. 21. 25. 31. 35. 35. 37. 30. 27. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 94.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 10/15/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 14.9% 13.2% 10.6% 0.0% 19.0% 18.9% 22.6% Logistic: 0.5% 3.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 1.3% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 2.4% 6.3% 4.7% 3.7% 0.1% 6.6% 6.8% 9.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.2% 4.1% 2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 3.8% 4.4% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 10/15/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##