* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 10/15/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 41 40 42 42 47 47 49 49 48 46 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 41 40 42 42 47 47 49 49 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 28 29 30 31 32 35 36 38 39 39 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 16 16 17 12 11 15 16 12 12 11 15 13 20 29 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -4 -2 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 2 0 2 -3 -2 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 148 144 136 126 124 111 111 99 88 86 86 91 112 137 181 203 228 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.4 30.9 31.3 31.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 153 154 158 160 164 163 161 159 162 164 170 172 173 173 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 4 6 4 7 6 8 6 8 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 75 76 77 77 74 74 71 71 66 66 63 63 60 53 47 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 12 13 10 10 9 11 9 10 8 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 14 6 10 16 13 2 16 25 41 46 47 36 23 18 42 27 9 200 MB DIV 81 55 44 49 55 46 75 97 73 82 94 57 11 44 30 0 -18 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -6 -1 0 0 -2 -3 2 2 6 LAND (KM) 317 331 353 329 299 234 162 126 66 32 11 59 54 34 90 -141 -460 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.4 16.2 16.7 17.2 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.5 94.9 95.2 95.5 96.0 96.5 97.2 97.9 98.8 99.9 101.8 104.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 5 6 6 7 11 12 12 13 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 19 20 21 25 31 37 41 40 38 38 38 41 41 22 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 29. 33. 35. 37. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. -1. 2. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -11. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 10. 12. 12. 17. 17. 19. 19. 18. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 94.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 10/15/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.78 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.33 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 20.8% 15.9% 12.4% 0.0% 20.3% 19.6% 28.1% Logistic: 0.3% 2.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 7.8% 5.5% 4.2% 0.0% 6.9% 6.6% 9.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.6% 4.9% 3.2% 2.6% 0.0% 4.4% 5.3% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 10/15/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##