* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 10/15/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 39 42 47 51 51 47 45 48 50 53 55 55 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 39 42 47 51 51 47 39 33 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 37 38 39 39 38 34 30 28 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 15 15 16 13 16 14 17 17 12 10 9 8 8 16 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 -2 2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 110 129 123 123 118 106 89 89 85 80 84 67 88 122 161 189 198 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.6 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.5 30.8 31.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 150 150 151 155 158 163 164 162 160 161 164 170 170 170 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.3 -53.8 -54.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 5 3 5 3 6 5 8 5 8 5 8 5 9 700-500 MB RH 71 73 74 77 78 77 78 76 77 74 70 68 68 66 59 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 12 12 11 12 13 11 8 5 6 4 5 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 12 16 19 11 19 22 37 50 47 46 38 23 16 16 3 200 MB DIV 102 95 77 67 72 84 83 75 62 40 55 49 53 1 18 -8 -12 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 0 0 -1 0 -4 -2 0 1 1 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 309 335 348 347 354 340 274 200 108 39 -3 -19 -13 -61 -90 -30 -112 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.6 16.3 16.9 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.6 94.0 94.3 94.5 94.7 95.2 95.6 96.1 96.7 97.5 98.3 99.7 101.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 9 10 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 18 18 19 22 27 35 40 38 37 36 36 46 50 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 3. 4. 2. -2. -6. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 12. 17. 21. 21. 17. 15. 18. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 93.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 10/15/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.48 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.57 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 21.2% 16.9% 13.5% 0.0% 21.1% 19.7% 18.9% Logistic: 1.9% 10.7% 3.8% 2.3% 0.7% 3.4% 8.7% 11.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 4.3% 11.2% 7.1% 5.3% 0.2% 8.2% 9.5% 10.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.6% 7.6% 4.5% 3.1% 0.6% 4.6% 5.7% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 10/15/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##