* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP912025 10/14/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 50 55 56 57 51 48 50 52 54 56 57 59 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 50 55 56 57 45 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 40 42 43 43 43 38 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 16 20 18 16 15 17 13 8 9 5 5 5 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 -1 0 -1 0 1 1 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 85 105 134 121 119 109 91 95 88 91 87 22 38 91 55 114 148 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.9 29.9 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 153 155 157 160 158 161 162 163 161 159 159 163 163 170 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 3 5 4 5 4 6 5 8 7 9 7 7 5 7 700-500 MB RH 68 74 76 79 79 79 78 80 76 75 70 67 65 64 60 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 12 12 12 11 11 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 15 14 16 13 14 28 36 47 59 60 43 35 13 7 13 200 MB DIV 97 104 96 88 75 106 81 67 46 54 59 54 43 45 2 5 0 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 0 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 251 266 272 263 264 269 250 203 94 -12 -76 -131 -155 -138 -143 -152 -76 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.6 14.2 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.5 92.8 93.1 93.3 93.6 94.1 94.6 95.1 95.7 96.3 97.1 97.9 99.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 19 20 20 21 23 28 33 33 26 29 34 34 26 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. -3. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 25. 26. 27. 21. 18. 20. 22. 24. 26. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.0 92.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912025 INVEST 10/14/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.45 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 28.4% 19.3% 15.2% 0.0% 23.0% 23.5% 24.0% Logistic: 13.1% 39.4% 19.0% 13.9% 4.3% 14.1% 20.3% 16.9% Bayesian: 3.1% 12.6% 6.2% 2.6% 0.4% 3.9% 1.8% 0.5% Consensus: 9.6% 26.8% 14.9% 10.6% 1.6% 13.6% 15.2% 13.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912025 INVEST 10/14/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##