* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP902025 10/09/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 50 59 57 49 42 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 43 50 59 57 49 37 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 25 22 18 16 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 24 26 25 25 20 21 20 15 10 3 9 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 4 4 7 14 9 0 3 0 1 1 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 71 73 75 81 73 60 66 92 82 171 243 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.4 28.0 31.1 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 158 158 160 159 154 152 147 147 144 173 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 5 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 87 87 88 86 81 75 67 68 60 54 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 16 18 20 23 20 16 12 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 49 55 66 61 66 68 52 51 52 48 42 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 120 106 142 138 101 83 36 33 10 2 11 70 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 -2 -10 -2 -6 -15 -13 -8 -8 3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 139 152 171 192 194 253 362 222 159 103 -34 57 -260 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 14 15 15 12 9 6 7 10 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 43 42 41 40 33 23 16 12 10 11 24 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 16. 14. 8. 3. -3. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 25. 34. 32. 24. 17. 14. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.1 98.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 10/09/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 1.8% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 5.8% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2.1% 2.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 10/09/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##