* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP902025 10/08/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 42 49 60 69 69 61 53 51 55 58 54 41 26 V (KT) LAND 30 31 29 28 27 27 27 33 33 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 28 27 27 27 27 30 27 24 24 26 26 27 29 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 24 23 19 22 25 19 11 8 6 24 50 63 67 68 62 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 7 4 3 10 8 2 0 -1 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 40 48 55 47 54 81 88 59 29 261 230 233 243 255 262 284 308 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.4 29.9 29.8 30.8 31.2 31.2 31.2 28.7 24.8 19.5 20.7 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 164 164 164 160 167 166 174 174 174 175 156 116 65 73 105 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 7 6 8 6 6 5 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 85 87 86 86 88 84 79 71 65 57 51 53 58 57 50 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 12 14 16 21 24 22 17 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 75 78 71 79 91 73 73 69 73 58 18 -35 -64 -133 -182 -144 200 MB DIV 133 132 112 112 89 57 60 15 26 44 75 55 61 11 -1 -46 -67 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -2 -1 2 1 6 -8 -16 -5 0 -15 20 78 28 24 -5 LAND (KM) 80 22 -28 -62 -82 -93 -94 104 54 27 -293 -714 -928 -999 -999 -872 -368 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 18.0 19.5 21.5 24.0 27.0 30.1 32.7 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.2 96.7 97.3 98.1 100.5 103.4 106.5 109.3 110.5 108.9 105.6 101.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 10 14 17 18 17 16 19 20 22 24 23 23 23 HEAT CONTENT 30 35 36 36 36 37 38 46 37 27 22 22 3 2 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 10. 16. 20. 20. 18. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 11. -1. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 13. 19. 18. 11. 5. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 12. 19. 30. 39. 39. 31. 24. 21. 25. 28. 24. 11. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 95.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 10/08/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.86 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 5.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 2.0% 4.5% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 6.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 1.5% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.1% 5.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 10/08/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##