* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP902025 10/08/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 51 60 69 71 67 60 58 56 57 62 45 31 V (KT) LAND 30 32 30 29 28 27 27 31 32 29 24 26 26 27 29 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 28 27 27 27 30 28 26 23 26 26 27 29 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 18 19 19 25 16 13 13 2 24 44 60 71 72 78 80 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 7 6 5 4 7 6 6 6 5 10 5 -2 -2 -7 -19 SHEAR DIR 45 52 54 50 48 83 94 61 50 305 241 240 243 254 262 275 294 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.2 29.8 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.9 30.9 30.4 28.2 17.9 19.9 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 162 164 165 158 166 171 172 173 174 175 173 151 65 65 66 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.6 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 6 5 7 5 8 4 6 4 7 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 83 85 87 86 88 85 81 74 69 63 57 55 62 63 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 12 13 16 20 22 22 20 16 12 8 5 9 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 66 68 78 77 73 100 80 76 80 56 74 43 7 3 -48 -117 -61 200 MB DIV 99 132 125 108 84 76 47 26 14 34 53 68 67 36 17 0 -53 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 -2 1 4 9 -3 -17 -13 3 -4 -14 46 39 92 34 LAND (KM) 126 65 -1 -41 -78 -94 -103 37 68 48 -143 -516 -929 -997 -999 -999 -777 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.7 19.1 21.0 23.2 26.1 29.3 32.0 34.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.7 96.3 96.9 97.6 99.8 102.7 105.8 108.8 110.9 110.5 107.7 103.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 10 14 17 18 18 16 17 19 21 25 23 23 20 HEAT CONTENT 27 31 35 36 35 35 38 49 37 29 21 21 7 3 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 17. 21. 23. 22. 22. 22. 24. 29. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 9. 13. 11. 0. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 18. 15. 9. 3. -2. -5. -0. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 21. 30. 39. 41. 37. 30. 28. 26. 27. 32. 15. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 95.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 10/08/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.06 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.70 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.29 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 18.1% 14.2% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 7.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.1% 3.5% 7.8% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.0% 9.4% 5.8% 4.2% 0.0% 1.2% 2.6% 1.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.5% 5.7% 3.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.6% 1.8% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 10/08/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##