* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP902025 10/08/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 47 59 68 74 76 72 61 56 51 51 54 42 31 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 47 34 30 28 31 26 15 20 25 26 27 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 30 28 27 30 27 23 23 26 26 27 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 16 18 17 22 19 12 16 11 7 28 49 59 65 79 81 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 7 7 4 7 13 8 4 3 6 6 4 0 -8 -11 SHEAR DIR 63 59 41 49 49 64 89 68 59 55 262 247 243 248 259 265 284 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.0 30.9 30.9 31.0 28.9 25.1 20.1 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 160 163 164 165 161 165 169 167 174 174 175 158 119 67 75 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 6 5 6 6 8 5 5 4 6 4 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 84 84 86 88 87 86 83 77 67 61 54 53 57 60 62 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 10 13 18 20 22 23 22 17 13 7 5 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 60 64 69 76 73 76 93 73 74 63 65 62 25 -25 -22 -78 -64 200 MB DIV 98 101 135 138 124 114 73 56 16 41 44 47 38 43 22 -6 -22 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -5 -5 -2 1 3 0 -9 -22 -3 6 -12 13 81 65 77 LAND (KM) 166 109 57 20 1 -29 -41 -64 191 3 65 -273 -651 -944 -992 -999 -891 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.8 17.9 19.6 21.6 24.1 27.1 30.2 32.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.9 95.6 96.1 96.6 97.2 98.8 101.2 104.2 107.4 110.0 111.1 109.6 106.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 7 11 14 18 18 16 16 18 20 24 26 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 34 38 39 39 37 42 41 31 26 21 22 3 2 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 396 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 17. 22. 24. 24. 24. 25. 26. 29. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 9. 8. -0. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 21. 20. 12. 6. -0. -3. -0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 29. 38. 44. 46. 42. 31. 26. 21. 21. 24. 12. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 94.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 10/08/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.18 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.75 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.29 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 20.1% 15.9% 12.6% 0.0% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 7.8% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% 5.5% 14.1% 4.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.2% 4.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 3.4% 11.0% 7.5% 4.8% 0.1% 8.5% 4.8% 1.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 2.2% 11.5% 6.7% 3.4% 0.5% 5.2% 3.4% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 10/08/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##