* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP902025 10/08/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 49 53 57 57 56 56 55 55 57 55 55 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 32 29 27 27 31 31 30 30 29 26 27 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 32 28 27 27 30 28 25 23 21 21 25 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 12 16 14 14 14 12 6 7 2 11 22 39 69 107 106 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 2 0 0 2 12 9 9 7 7 4 5 0 -35 -38 SHEAR DIR 71 49 36 32 22 13 45 75 46 19 190 257 247 252 228 227 226 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.2 29.6 30.1 29.3 28.2 27.1 25.4 29.8 29.4 29.4 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 165 164 163 165 158 163 169 160 147 135 118 166 165 167 68 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 6 5 6 5 8 3 4 2 3 2 6 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 85 84 84 85 87 88 83 80 73 63 58 51 51 61 77 84 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 59 66 71 79 83 97 82 78 72 57 69 60 66 85 75 54 200 MB DIV 109 101 104 111 102 89 95 59 46 53 29 38 34 49 115 171 162 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -5 2 -1 -11 1 7 7 33 27 106 254 LAND (KM) 80 76 65 30 -40 -131 -103 -51 66 172 132 102 2 -27 -458 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.6 19.9 21.5 23.2 25.0 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.4 94.0 94.4 94.9 95.5 97.1 99.6 102.7 106.1 109.4 111.9 113.2 113.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 7 7 10 14 17 17 16 12 10 11 19 30 35 33 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 27 27 28 27 34 38 42 24 8 4 3 19 21 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 386 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 10. 17. 22. 25. 26. 26. 26. 27. 30. 34. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 2. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 27. 26. 26. 25. 25. 27. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 93.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 10/08/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.89 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.39 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.68 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 28.6% 19.9% 16.0% 0.0% 24.0% 25.8% 37.4% Logistic: 7.6% 33.0% 17.1% 12.4% 2.2% 31.6% 38.8% 12.5% Bayesian: 2.4% 16.8% 13.0% 3.9% 0.4% 12.6% 13.8% 25.7% Consensus: 7.4% 26.1% 16.7% 10.8% 0.8% 22.7% 26.1% 25.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 4.2% 14.5% 8.8% 5.9% 0.9% 11.8% 13.5% 14.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 10/08/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##