* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP902025 10/07/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 28 34 43 50 59 66 67 67 67 63 61 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 28 28 27 27 27 31 32 32 31 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 25 26 27 27 30 29 29 28 26 26 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 10 15 20 18 19 21 22 17 8 3 14 32 67 98 102 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 3 0 1 4 4 6 4 2 3 0 4 0 -24 -22 SHEAR DIR 48 61 37 30 27 43 56 78 87 101 76 46 250 233 231 234 233 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 30.0 29.2 29.9 29.9 30.1 29.7 30.9 30.9 30.8 29.0 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 166 165 165 163 166 158 166 167 168 163 172 174 176 161 68 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 6 5 6 5 8 6 6 4 4 4 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 84 84 83 83 86 86 86 82 78 71 63 57 52 53 64 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 6 6 7 9 13 13 16 20 22 22 22 17 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 57 55 57 66 81 78 93 79 70 72 62 63 75 47 27 33 200 MB DIV 118 115 82 76 97 76 72 50 55 38 52 32 62 74 75 92 107 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 1 2 0 -1 -12 -18 -3 2 -6 88 117 LAND (KM) 84 88 86 70 48 -66 -136 -101 -91 57 90 3 53 -185 -552 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.6 17.3 17.9 19.1 20.6 22.5 24.6 26.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.8 93.5 93.9 94.2 94.6 95.8 97.6 100.1 103.0 106.2 109.0 110.7 111.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 5 6 6 8 11 13 16 17 15 12 13 16 23 30 34 HEAT CONTENT 30 30 29 29 28 29 25 34 39 46 33 24 27 22 20 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. 17. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. 34. 37. 42. 55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. -3. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 6. 7. 12. 18. 20. 18. 16. 10. 5. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 9. 18. 25. 34. 41. 42. 42. 42. 38. 36. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 92.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 10/07/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.94 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.34 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.64 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.4% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 18.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 18.5% 7.7% 5.1% 0.7% 11.5% 14.5% 7.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.1% 14.1% 8.4% 1.8% 0.3% 10.7% 11.5% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 10/07/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##